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How do we get this magic performance-boosting 200 line patch?
The Phoronix article "The ~200 Line Linux Kernel Patch That Does Wonders" has created a lot of noise. It seems reports are flooding in that this patch noticeably increases responsiveness during aggressive cpu usage.
How likely is it that this patch will make it into the next version of Ubuntu? And will it be backported?
The likelihood of it being included in Ubuntu is mostly dependent on if the Linux Kernel (as upstream) includes the patch in the stable release 2.6.38 which will go into Natty Narwhal.
It's possible the Ubuntu kernel team will patch the Ubuntu kernel in time for the release if they feel it's really warranted. But that's up to them. You can track what the kernel team does here:
https://wiki.ubuntu.com/KernelTeam
They often have meetings and discuss these sorts of things, the meeting minutes often contain the decision to patch certain things.
There is probably no chance that it'll be back ported, even if it's 200 lines, it's modifying key areas of kernel functionality which change all the time (making the patch hard to apply). If it were to go wrong, it'd be hard to fix. I'd say it would be almost impossible to accept a backport.
The answer is simple.If the patch makes it to kernel 2.6.38, then Natty will have it as well.