This looks like the same issue as Windows Server 2022 Time Service Jumping into the future. I've also added a support ticket at Microsoft (Feedback Hub) for the issue: https://aka.ms/AAkwnpl
As the system clock is essential for correctly working software and probably the most central shared mutable state, this issue is wreaking havoc on both our systems and everyone we communicate with, causing ripples all the way to critical infrastructure.
We noticed this for the first time in august 2022 on a 2019 server. The clock was set to January 2023, but corrected itself. Unfortunately, this was found some time after logs had been purged, so we were unable to debug it further.
But last month, we experienced it again, this time on a 2016 server. The clock was set to 55 days to the future.
15 seconds later, Time-Service noticed the clock was different than our domain controller, and that it must change the clock back -4454176 seconds. It backs off as it things it's larger than 4294967295.
15 minutes after the first change, the clock is set again, this time backwards to 12h26m43s in the future.
15 seconds after the second change, Time-Service notice the clock is off and this time corrects it as it's within a reasonable window.
And then the same thing happened again three weeks later on the same server, only differing in details. In the mean time, the server had both been rebooted and updated with a new monthly update.
We're using VMWare, configured with two physical hardware clocks. We have two domain controllers configured to use pool.ntp.org -- should probably be moved to our own stratum 0 hardware, although it's probably not related to our issues.
With the help from a few external experts, we have pretty much excluded erroneous configuration, manual intervention (by mistake, security breach or disloyal employee) and hardware issues, and we're left with "strange Windows bug".
Unfortunately, 2016 doesn't include much details related to these events, so it's difficult to debug further. 2019+ includes more information.
@chris1out in Windows Server 2022 Time Service Jumping into the future had the same issue for servers not enrolled in a domain, so we can probably rule out the domain controller. It was also using the standard time server and not pool.ntp.org. This means we can probably rule out those two too. This pretty much leaves a bug in Time-Service as the probable cause. This serverfault question is the only documented event of this we're able to find.